Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Handicap Trends & Pre-Weights Watchlist

Entries were published on 17 February, with weights to follow on 24 February. Until then, the task is matching what we know — age, visible official ratings, recent form and trainer angles — against the average winner profiles. Some horses on the entry lists will not make the final field, and several of the most interesting names are awaiting a BHA mark. Everything below is flagged accordingly.

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

5-year trend avg  |  OR 127.8  |  Last 8 winners Irish-trained  |  1/10 favourites  |  0/10 ran at Cheltenham before  |  0/10 fillies

Nine of the last twelve winners were rated between 122 and 134. Favourites are routinely beaten. Irish trainers have dominated in recent years, with Joseph O’Brien and Gordon Elliott accounting for six of the last eight winners between them.

A strong pre-weights pointer for this race is the Naas Rated Hurdle in February, which has produced four of the last seven Fred Winter winners — three of whom won the Naas race outright. This year’s renewal was won by Highland Crystal, with Saratoga second and Munsif third. All three are entered here.

Saratoga attracted significant ante-post support off the back of that run. Munsif brings flat-race class and the required hurdles experience. Both are awaiting a BHA mark, making the 24 February weights publication the critical moment for properly assessing them. Of the entries already showing a visible OR, Klycot (OR 127) sits almost exactly on the trend average. Manlaga (OR 130) and Winston Junior (OR 131) are towards the upper end of the historical winning band but remain within range.

Ultima Handicap Chase

OR 143.4  |  Age 8.1  |  10/10 British-trained  |  8/10 wore headgear  |  3/10 favourites

The strongest home-bias race of the entire week. Not a single Irish-trained winner in the last decade. Headgear is a notable secondary filter, and the target rating band is the low-to-mid 140s.

Four entries already sit right on that band: Hyland (9yo, OR 143), Imperial Saint (8yo, OR 144), Blow Your Wad (8yo, OR 144) and Myretown (9yo, OR 142). Myretown won this race last year under Patrick Wadge for Lucinda Russell, and connections have since confirmed the Ultima as the plan again rather than the Grand National. The handicapper’s response to his mark will be the key number on 24 February.

Jagwar also holds an entry here. The Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero-trained seven-year-old won the Plate last year, was beaten a head on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham in January, and his connections subsequently ruled out a Ryanair Chase bid. He is British-trained with outstanding Cheltenham course form. At OR 152 he sits above the low-to-mid 140s trend band, so he is better framed as a class horse likely to be near the top of the weights rather than a tight trends match — but his Festival record and course ability make him difficult to ignore.

Festival Plate Handicap Chase

OR 143.4  |  Age 8  |  Equal GB/IRE split  |  5/10 novices  |  4/10 favourites

Jagwar, the defending Plate champion, holds an entry here and his connections have indicated the Plate as the primary Festival target following the Ryanair ruling-out. A successful defence would be historically rare — Elfast, who won in 1992 and 1994, was the last horse to win the Plate twice.

Madara is another entry to note. Trainer Dan Skelton has described the Plate as the campaign target, and Madara has Cheltenham course form from previous visits. He is shown as a 7yo on OR 140. Vincenzo (8yo, OR 142) is the closest numerical match to the trend average among the confirmed-OR entries.

National Hunt Chase

OR 135  |  Age 8  |  Only 1 year of data — treat as directional only

With 2026 only the second running of this race in its current format, the OR 135 and age 8 markers are rough pointers rather than established patterns.

Grand Geste won the William Hill Grand National Trial at Haydock in February and is entered here on OR 135. His connections have indicated Cheltenham is now under serious consideration. Guard The Moon (8yo, OR 137) sits close to the directional profile. Backmersackme is entered and is the current market favourite, Irish-trained for Emmet Mullins, though his BHA mark is still to come. No Time To Wait (8yo, RPR 135, BHA mark to come) is also on the list pending the weights.

Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

OR 144.9  |  Age 7.4  |  6/10 Irish-trained  |  1/10 favourites

A race dominated by Irish plots, where several of the most interesting entries are yet to be given a mark. The mid-140s band is where to focus on 24 February.

Iberico Lord (8yo, OR 144) sits right on the trend average and won the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton in January at 22/1 — a recognised Coral Cup trial. He has the rating and a clear form line going into weights day. I Started A Joke (7yo, BHA mark to come) fits the age profile and is Irish-trained.

Cross Country Chase

OR 157  |  Age 8  |  Only 1 year of data — treat as directional only

With just one year of handicap data, proven cross-country ability matters far more than raw rating alignment.

Favori de Champdou is the standout entry on current form. Gordon Elliott’s charge won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December and then won the Cross Country Chase on Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham in January. That is direct course and race-type experience from this season. He is awaiting a BHA mark. Pied Piper (8yo, BHA mark to come) fits the directional age profile and is entered.

Grand Annual Handicap Chase

OR 141.3  |  Age 8.4  |  4/7 British-trained  |  3/7 novices  |  1/7 favourites  |  7-year average

A fast two-miler. Worth noting that the 2025 winner Jazzy Matty won off OR 135, below the trend average, so the rating should be treated as a guide rather than a hard filter.

Vanderpoel (7yo, OR 141) sits almost exactly on the trend average and is the cleanest numerical match among confirmed-OR entries. Martator (9yo, OR 139) brackets the target from just below. Jasko Des Dames finished sixth in the 2025 Grand Annual and holds Cheltenham course form in this exact race — he is worth keeping on the list if confirmed in the final field.

Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase

OR 146  |  Age 7  |  Only 1 year of data — treat as directional only

Two horses came out of the same race and both have strong claims here.

Sixmilebridge (7yo, OR 150) won the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown in January by five lengths, jumping with authority throughout. Despite that performance the BHA gave him only a 1lb rise. Trainer Fergal O’Brien has indicated the handicap route at Cheltenham is under serious consideration, noting the horse would not be near the top of the weights in a limited handicap. He has Cheltenham course form.

Miami Magic (7yo, OR 142) finished second in that Scilly Isles race and is confirmed as a Jack Richards entry by trainer Stuart Edmunds. At OR 142 he sits closer to the one-year trend average than Sixmilebridge.

Pertemps Network Final

OR 137  |  Age 8  |  Avg qualifying position 3rd  |  3-year average

The qualifying position trend is a useful filter — winners have on average qualified by finishing third, so placed qualifiers deserve equal consideration to those who won their qualifier outright.

Supremely West qualified by finishing third at the Cheltenham Pertemps qualifier in October, behind Ma Shantou and Electric Mason. Both of those horses have since improved significantly in the ratings. Supremely West’s own mark has moved in his favour since that run, and Dan Skelton’s yard has a strong record of targeting specific Festival handicaps over a sustained campaign.

Electric Mason finished second at that October qualifier and won a valuable race at Haydock since, resulting in a significant ratings rise. His position in the final weights will be worth checking carefully on 24 February.

Kim Muir Handicap Chase

OR 138.3  |  Age 7.6  |  6/7 novices  |  6/7 Irish-trained  |  7/10 wore headgear  |  2/10 favourites

Six of the last seven winners were Irish-trained novice chasers. That is the dominant profile and the first filter to apply.

Kim Roque fits it directly. Joseph O’Brien’s charge is a novice chaser with experience in big fields who jumps well. He carries an Irish rating of 129, which would likely bring him comfortably within the 0-145 ceiling. He ran with credit on his most recent start at Leopardstown, looking the winner for much of the race before being passed at the final fence and staying on in the closing stages — encouraging for a horse likely to step up in trip. His BHA mark on 24 February is the key number; if it comes out at 145 or below, this race looks the natural target.

American Mike (9yo, OR 138) sits almost exactly on the trend average for rating and is a numerical fit, though at 9yo and without the Irish novice profile he fits the number rather than the dominant pattern.

County Hurdle

OR 140.1  |  Age 6.2  |  9/10 won by Willie Mullins (5) or Dan Skelton (4)  |  3/10 favourites

Nine of the last ten winners came from either Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton. That is not a footnote — it is the starting point of any analysis of this race. Before ratings, before age, before form: which entries carry those two sets of colours?

Among entries with confirmed age profiles, Sinnatra (6yo, OR 133) fits the age average cleanly. Kopeck De Mee is also 6yo, with a BHA mark still to come. Both sit in the right age band.

Ndaawi and Absurde both ran in the 2025 County Hurdle, finishing second and third behind Kargese, and are entered again this year. They have course form in this exact race from twelve months ago.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

OR 140.9  |  Age 5.8  |  7/10 Irish-trained  |  7/10 novices  |  0/10 favourites

Young Irish novice hurdlers are the profile. Favourites have never won. The entry list is enormous and many names will disappear before declarations.

The Passing Wife is an Irish-trained novice who is entered in the Coral Cup but is widely expected to target the Martin Pipe, subject to his BHA mark. He carries an Irish rating of 139. He won impressively on his most recent start, bolting up over a longer trip and beating a well-regarded rival. If the BHA assigns him a mark of 145 or below, connections are expected to aim here. He is Irish-trained, a novice, and fits the dominant winner profile. His BHA mark on 24 February is the single most important number for this race.

Intellotto (6yo, OR 135) is a reasonable age-fit among entries already carrying a confirmed mark.

The 24 February Checklist

When the weights are published, the three-step filter is straightforward. First, check each shortlisted entry’s official rating against the target averages — for several horses above, this is the moment the assessor’s mark is revealed for the first time. Second, apply the secondary flags: novice status, headgear, course form that season, and trainer yard, because these often separate the properly aligned from the merely interesting. Third, remember that entries are not runners. The final declarations will reshape every race, and some of the strongest trend fits simply will not turn up.

From 2025, horses need more runs to qualify for non-novice handicaps at the Festival. That change may gradually shift typical winner profiles over the coming years, so all trends — particularly those based on smaller samples — should be treated as a guide rather than a rulebook.